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The Sunbelt Boom: A Look at Interstate Migration Trends

hamilton-zanze January 30, 2025
Executive Insights Article
Ironwood at Happy Valley (Phoenix, AZ) Ironwood at Happy Valley (Phoenix, AZ)

The latest U.S. Census Bureau data on interstate migration (July 2023–June 2024) reveals a clear trend: Americans are flocking to the Sunbelt, particularly the Southeast. This migration wave continues a pattern of significant domestic population shifts, fueled by affordability, tax policies, and quality-of-life considerations.

 

The Sunbelt’s Dominance in Domestic Migration

The Tax Foundation highlights complementary datasets from moving companies such as U-Haul and United Van Lines, which align with Census findings. States in the South and Southwest continue to attract a disproportionate share of domestic movers. Between July 2020 and July 2024, the South gained a staggering 2,685,000 net domestic migrants, as reported by Newgeography. The South Atlantic division led the charge, with Florida alone gaining 810,000 residents, followed by North Carolina (384,000), South Carolina (300,000), and Tennessee (237,000).

States like North Carolina, Tennessee, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Florida—where Hamilton Zanze (HZ) owns assets—are among the top beneficiaries of these trends. This sustained influx bolsters the demand for housing and services, presenting significant opportunities for real estate investors and developers.

 

Affordability and Tax Policy: Key Drivers of Migration

Migration patterns often reflect economic factors. According to the Tax Foundation, Americans are moving from higher-tax states to lower-tax states. IRS data underscores this trend:

  • Nine of the top 10 states with the largest population gains from 2019 to 2020 had no or low individual income taxes.
  • States with below-average state and local tax collections per capita gained more taxpayers than those with above-average collections.
  • Among the 25 states ranked highest on the 2020 State Business Tax Climate Index, 20 experienced a net gain in taxpayers.

For instance, Florida, Texas, and Tennessee—all states with no income tax—continue to rank highly in migration studies. These tax advantages make them attractive destinations for individuals and businesses alike.

 

Beyond Taxes: Lifestyle and Family Connections

Affordability isn’t the sole factor driving relocation. Surveys by United Van Lines reveal that, for the first time in decades, the primary reason for interstate moves was to be closer to family (28%). Other motivations include job opportunities, cost of living, and overall quality of life. As U-Haul President J.T. Taylor noted, families are increasingly prioritizing factors like cost of living and job prospects when deciding where to move.

States like Arizona and Nevada, which balance affordability with lifestyle benefits such as warm climates and lower population density, have become increasingly popular.

 

Implications for Real Estate Investment

The sustained migration to Sunbelt states signals robust demand for housing, particularly in suburban and secondary markets. This trend aligns with Hamilton Zanze’s investment focus, which includes key Sunbelt markets. With North Carolina, Texas, and Florida continuing to see strong population growth, opportunities abound for developing and managing rental properties to meet this demand.

 

Conclusion

The interstate migration data paints a clear picture: The Sunbelt remains a magnet for domestic movers, driven by affordability, tax advantages, and lifestyle factors. For real estate investors, these trends represent both opportunities and challenges. Understanding the nuances behind these migrations—beyond tax rates and job opportunities—will be crucial for capitalizing on the growth of these dynamic regions.

 

Sources:

Tax Foundation: Americans Moving to States

Newgeography: United States Moves South

U-Haul Growth States of 2024

United Van Lines 2024 National Movers Study